Re-Drafting Ja Morant, Zion Williamson and the 2019 NBA Draft

Re-Drafting Ja Morant, Zion Williamson and the 2019 NBA Draft: The current media environment requires immediate analysis of the NBA draft, yet it takes time to understand how each club fared.

We now have three seasons to make conclusions for the 2019 draught class. Teams would have fared far better in the first round had they known then what they know now.

We’ll re-draft the top 30 selections from 2019, but the order won’t be totally determined by prior performance, now that we have more knowledge.

Theoretically prime age for these athletes is still in their early to mid-20s. Therefore, there is also a great deal of subjectivity at work. There are many decisions to be made in order to sort through everyone.

It is also necessary to take basketball’s evolution into account. The concept of positionless basketball (and, thus, the significance of wings) may not have been as well-known three years ago as it is now.

The first round should look like this if it were to be redrafted today after combining all of the aforementioned factors into sort of an analytical cocktail (assuming an order of 30 generic teams, not the original order from 2019).

30. Cam Reddish (Originally Picked 10th)

Cam Reddish has averaged double digits in each of his three seasons, and his 35.9 three-point shooting % in 2021–2022 showed some promise for his outside shooting. However, there is a case to have him removed from the top 30 completely.

Reddish has only participated in 133 regular-season games throughout his career, and in terms of victories over replacement players, he is ranked 55th among players selected in 2019. He ranks 43rd in terms of effective field goal % among the 49 players who have attempted at least 100 shots, excluding undrafted players.

Reddish is still worth a look in the re-draft because of his conventional three-and-D wing athletic profile and young age of 22.

29. John Konchar (Originally Undrafted)

Reddish may have a better raw scoring average and more pre-draft fanfare, but John Konchar’s advanced statistics indicate he ought to be much higher than 29th here.

Konchar’s career statistics of 10.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.4 threes, and 1.4 steals per 75 possessions place him in the top 80 among all NBA players in box plus/minus. He has also made 40.6 percent of his efforts at three-pointers.

Basketball is a team sport, so you don’t necessarily want volume-scoring upside at all five positions. Even if Konchar is probably as excellent as he will ever be, having him on the team may greatly increase the number of victories.

3. Alexander-Walker, Nickeil (17th overall pick initially)

Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Cam Reddish have similar scoring profiles in terms of points per possession and effective field-goal percentage. The assist rate for Reddish is more than doubled by Alexander-Walker, who also normally has more pop off the dribble.

Alexander-Walker is chosen because of his clear advantage in playmaking potential.

4. Nassir Little (25th overall pick initially)

It may seem a bit excessive to include a player with a lifetime scoring average of 5.8 in the top 25, but Nassir Little hasn’t had many chances to showcase his offense. He was a member of a team captained by Damian Lillard that prioritized winning above the growth of its young players up until this past season.

But after Lillard’s abdominal ailment forced him out of the 2021–22 rotation, Little averaged 13.1 points, 2.1 threes, and 40.3 percent from outside the arc. Even if his productivity was limited to just 12 games, his 33.8 three-point percentage over the past two seasons shows he has the potential to develop into a reliable shooter.

5. Luguentz Dort (Originally Undrafted)

A dismal picture of Luguentz Dort’s career is painted by his shooting percentages and advanced analytics. He has never had a box plus/minus over replacement level, and he has only shot 39.5 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from beyond the arc.

However, Basketball Reference agrees that BPM fails to adequately capture defense. Dort is a great on-ball defender who is already developing.

He will be a serious three-and-D danger if he can improve his consistency from the outside, and there’s no reason to believe a 23-year-old couldn’t do that.

6. Coby White (Originally chosen seventh)

Coby White has yet to record a box plus/minus that is above that of a replacement player, in part because of his unimpressive steal rate and below-average true shooting %. Additionally, a bit more playmaking would be wonderful. (For his whole career, he has averaged 4.5 assists per 75 possessions.)

There are some grounds for optimism, nevertheless. White, who is 6’5″, has demonstrated some promise as a high-volume floor spacer who can make an impact off the bench. White has averaged 7.8 three-point tries for every 75 possessions over the course of his career while also hitting an above-average 36.5 percent from outside the arc.

White might become a top reserve with little improvements in the aforementioned areas of weakness.

7. Naz Reid (Originally Undrafted)

Over the past two seasons, Naz Reid has quietly developed into one of the league’s most dependable backup centers.

In only 17.4 minutes a game during that span, he has averaged 9.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.0 block, and 0.8 three-pointers. This is equivalent to 19.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 1.6 three-pointers for every 75 possessions. He has also made 34.7 percent of his threes.

8. Kevin Porter Jr. (Originally Picked 30th)

Kevin Porter Jr. has averaged 15.9 points and 6.2 assists over the past two seasons, so he has the production. His career highs in three-point tries per game (6.8) and three-point percentage (37.5) last season are what are most promising about him.

Although Porter’s past “anger control difficulties” are concerning, it is difficult to discount his offensive potential. He may be a long-term starter if he commits a little bit more on defense and keeps working to increase his consistency on both ends.

Read More: Fantasy Cheat Sheet: Six Players to Target in the Last Round of Your Draft

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